{"uuid":"254419f5-af39-4624-5123-0ca6be130f2a","categoryUuid":null,"data":{"meta":{"name":"Signal: Identifying Seller Exhaustion Across Multiple Timeframes  "},"configs":[{"meta":{"date":1715212800000,"asset":"BTC","since":1231718400000,"until":1715212800000,"mathFn":{"name":"sma","value":"14"},"currency":"native","metricCode":"breakdowns.RealizedLossByLthSth","resolution":"24h","movingMedian":0,"movingAverage":"14","expMovingAverage":0},"uuid":"087d1845-1e7b-4839-974f-2f7a34256450","extra":{"zoom":"5y","price":true,"scale":"lin","lineColor":"#f7931a"},"configType":"metric"},{"meta":{"content":"## Identifying Seller Exhaustion across Multiple Timeframes\n\n---\n\nIn this report, we will take advantage of the fact that the Short-Term Holder cohort is the dominant group locking in losses, and use this to identify periods of seller exhaustion. The goal is to identify inflection points during corrections and consolidations within a dominant bull trend.\n\nHere, we define Seller Exhaustion as a point of oversold conditions, where a majority of the sellers who are likely to sell, and done so. Since every seller is matched with a buyer, we can simultaneously gauge periods when this sell-side is absorbed by an influx of buy-side demand, which helps establish a local bottom.\n\n---\n\n### Timeframe Selection\n\n---\n\nInflection points in market trends tend to reverberate upwards from smaller timeframes (minutes to hours) through to larger timeframes (days to months). In order to capture this effect, we will utilize our newly released age breakdown metrics to isolate two distinct sets of investors from within the STH cohort:\n\n- **Daily Traders [24hr Cohort]**\n- **Swing Traders [1d-1m Cohort]**\n\n---\n\n### Framework Construction\n\n---\n\nIn order to model points of extreme financial pressure and reaction, we call upon three profit/loss metrics which help us establish the severity of the pressure investors are experiencing. \n\n- **MVRV Ratio** which assesses the unrealized profit or loss held by investors within the cohort.\n- **SOPR** which evaluates the average magnitude of profit or loss locked in by the cohort.\n- **Realized Loss** which isolates the USD denominated magnitude loss locked in by the cohort."},"uuid":"e9f6e52e-d8b3-4fc6-b015-bd0d2e039ddb","extra":{"backgroundColor":"#ffffff"},"configType":"content"},{"meta":{"content":"# Daily Traders"},"uuid":"0278d49c-1b40-451f-99ca-bb602db5b65a","extra":{"backgroundColor":"#ffffff"},"configType":"content"},{"meta":{"content":"## Daily Traders\n\n---\n\nFor evaluating **Daily Traders** we shall utilize the 24hr Age Breakdown. This is inherently the fastest moving cohort, and the most sensitive to the spot price, reacting near instantaneously to any and all fluctuations in price action. Thus, this cohort will produce a large amount of seller exhaustion signals, but with a larger proportion of noise due to the erratic nature of the selected timeframe.\n\n---\n\n### Framework\n\n---\n\n**A signal for 24hr Seller Exhaustion is highlighted as price trace when all three signals are firing in conjunction.**\n\n- MVRV Ratio Z-Score is less than -1σ\n- SOPR Ratio Z-Score is less than -1σ\n- Realized Loss Z-Score is greater than +2σ"},"uuid":"7add3bd2-9d39-49ff-8c30-b3efa64bb4a4","extra":{"backgroundColor":"#ffffff"},"configType":"content"},{"meta":{"content":"# Weekly-Monthly Traders"},"uuid":"9e912429-4b92-4327-a93a-9d0ec60e2a1c","extra":{"backgroundColor":"#ffffff"},"configType":"content"},{"meta":{"content":"## Weekly-Monthly Traders\n\n---\n\nFor evaluating **Weekly-Monthly Traders** we shall utilize the 1d-1w and 1w-1m Age Breakdown Cohorts. \n\nHere, we aim to identify periods of seller exhaustion across a monthly timeframe, indicating that the loss in the market has continued to spread to relatively less price-sensitive investors.\n\n---\n\n### Framework\n\n---\n\n**A signal for Weekly-Monthly Seller Exhaustion is highlighted as price trace when all three signals are firing in conjunction.**\n\n- MVRV Ratio Z-Score is negative\n- SOPR Ratio Z-Score is negative\n- Realized Loss Z-Score is greater than +2σ"},"uuid":"f857363d-114b-4573-a352-ccc4c2271021","extra":{"backgroundColor":"#ffffff"},"configType":"content"},{"meta":{"content":"# Seasonal Investors"},"uuid":"bd9596a6-7da4-4778-b8f0-9b7bcc2d59c6","extra":{"backgroundColor":"#ffffff"},"configType":"content"},{"meta":{"content":"## Seansonal Traders\n\n---\n\nFor evaluating **Seasonal Traders** we shall utilize the 1m-3m and 3m-6m Age Breakdown Cohorts. \n\nThis class of trader is naturally the slowest responder to pertubartions in price action, due to the inherent ability to have accumulated anywhere within the last 1-to-6 months of spot prices. This results in higher conviction local bottoms across a 6-month time horizon.\n\n---\n\n### Framework\n\n---\n\n**A signal for Weekly-Monthly Seller Exhaustion is highlighted as price trace when all three signals are firing in conjunction.**\n\n- MVRV Ratio Z-Score is less than -1σ\n- SOPR Ratio Z-Score is less than -1σ\n- Realized Loss Z-Score is greater than +1σ"},"uuid":"7cd00d8a-7d7e-443f-88d8-2fb2b1ff7c01","extra":{"backgroundColor":"#ffffff"},"configType":"content"},{"meta":{"refUuid":"43b78d61-d2f4-4a77-6b7b-cb61d41e94b9"},"uuid":"e2a449e1-a18a-4222-9e59-a81fde2ef896","extra":{"zoom":"2y"},"configType":"workbench"},{"meta":{"refUuid":"fed73b7a-4a59-4eb2-74c0-73cad6feed6c"},"uuid":"83d4995e-2b8f-46e4-8414-1ee99018a213","extra":{"zoom":"5y"},"configType":"workbench"},{"meta":{"refUuid":"899c31ae-5765-4430-534a-d2599d61d49a"},"uuid":"bd66130c-57ad-4ad8-92dd-780b5d6b1227","extra":{"zoom":"3m"},"configType":"workbench"},{"meta":{"refUuid":"5dc76ff5-9843-401d-5140-fd1527a4a06f"},"uuid":"096b44ce-8fc8-4e4f-95ed-2f6424144e7b","extra":{"zoom":"1y"},"configType":"workbench"},{"meta":{"refUuid":"6247115c-8194-4b27-5a39-5e72da1280fe"},"uuid":"3a086a7c-7e53-43f4-b3a3-aa2d0794c773","extra":{"zoom":"1y"},"configType":"workbench"},{"meta":{"refUuid":"4da005ba-6d5c-45e3-5784-c94ef6738eb5"},"uuid":"24e8d96f-57ea-44d2-8080-4ebd2c48a447","extra":{"zoom":"1y"},"configType":"workbench"},{"meta":{"refUuid":"6ea1caf0-2dd0-4290-5e00-70b697657dca"},"uuid":"2fc1e8c8-1b07-4617-bb9b-bc0388cfdfff","extra":{"zoom":"2y"},"configType":"workbench"},{"meta":{"refUuid":"5018a57f-8ae1-4d05-66a4-cf13392e50c7"},"uuid":"0dd54b79-df24-465d-ab7c-39e1e60ee5cf","extra":{"zoom":"2y"},"configType":"workbench"},{"meta":{"refUuid":"f2b8b37e-7916-4508-746f-d4d4947f9535"},"uuid":"81135f6a-d223-4641-8e05-30a32f55ca8b","extra":{"zoom":"2y"},"configType":"workbench"},{"meta":{"refUuid":"56722241-6368-47d6-4bd4-df38e488e051"},"uuid":"5d09559d-a93d-4791-a65b-a6c80ae9fd15","extra":{"zoom":"3m"},"configType":"workbench"},{"meta":{"refUuid":"df02c8fc-73b7-43c2-4dbe-7cb942ff3678"},"uuid":"a1492d12-1304-404e-8627-a3223c540654","extra":{"zoom":"3m"},"configType":"workbench"},{"meta":{"refUuid":"1d0cb9c5-f6d8-4cc0-4488-8b519de68746"},"uuid":"fa295dbb-25d7-4878-bb8c-68ea97aec5d4","extra":{"zoom":"3m"},"configType":"workbench"}],"layouts":[{"h":8,"i":"087d1845-1e7b-4839-974f-2f7a34256450","w":7,"x":5,"y":0,"minH":1,"minW":3,"moved":false,"static":false},{"h":8,"i":"e9f6e52e-d8b3-4fc6-b015-bd0d2e039ddb","w":5,"x":0,"y":0,"minH":1,"minW":3,"moved":false,"static":false},{"h":2,"i":"0278d49c-1b40-451f-99ca-bb602db5b65a","w":12,"x":0,"y":8,"minH":1,"minW":3,"moved":false,"static":false},{"h":8,"i":"7add3bd2-9d39-49ff-8c30-b3efa64bb4a4","w":4,"x":0,"y":10,"minH":1,"minW":3,"moved":false,"static":false},{"h":2,"i":"9e912429-4b92-4327-a93a-9d0ec60e2a1c","w":12,"x":0,"y":34,"minH":1,"minW":3,"moved":false,"static":false},{"h":8,"i":"f857363d-114b-4573-a352-ccc4c2271021","w":4,"x":0,"y":36,"minH":1,"minW":3,"moved":false,"static":false},{"h":2,"i":"bd9596a6-7da4-4778-b8f0-9b7bcc2d59c6","w":12,"x":0,"y":60,"minH":1,"minW":3,"moved":false,"static":false},{"h":8,"i":"7cd00d8a-7d7e-443f-88d8-2fb2b1ff7c01","w":4,"x":0,"y":62,"minH":1,"minW":3,"moved":false,"static":false},{"h":8,"i":"e2a449e1-a18a-4222-9e59-a81fde2ef896","w":8,"x":4,"y":36,"minH":1,"minW":3,"moved":false,"static":false},{"h":8,"i":"83d4995e-2b8f-46e4-8414-1ee99018a213","w":8,"x":4,"y":62,"minH":1,"minW":3,"moved":false,"static":false},{"h":8,"i":"bd66130c-57ad-4ad8-92dd-780b5d6b1227","w":8,"x":4,"y":10,"minH":1,"minW":3,"moved":false,"static":false},{"h":8,"i":"096b44ce-8fc8-4e4f-95ed-2f6424144e7b","w":6,"x":0,"y":44,"minH":1,"minW":3,"moved":false,"static":false},{"h":8,"i":"3a086a7c-7e53-43f4-b3a3-aa2d0794c773","w":6,"x":6,"y":44,"minH":1,"minW":3,"moved":false,"static":false},{"h":8,"i":"24e8d96f-57ea-44d2-8080-4ebd2c48a447","w":12,"x":0,"y":52,"minH":1,"minW":3,"moved":false,"static":false},{"h":8,"i":"2fc1e8c8-1b07-4617-bb9b-bc0388cfdfff","w":6,"x":0,"y":70,"minH":1,"minW":3,"moved":false,"static":false},{"h":8,"i":"0dd54b79-df24-465d-ab7c-39e1e60ee5cf","w":6,"x":6,"y":70,"minH":1,"minW":3,"moved":false,"static":false},{"h":8,"i":"81135f6a-d223-4641-8e05-30a32f55ca8b","w":12,"x":0,"y":78,"minH":1,"minW":3,"moved":false,"static":false},{"h":8,"i":"5d09559d-a93d-4791-a65b-a6c80ae9fd15","w":6,"x":6,"y":18,"minH":1,"minW":3,"moved":false,"static":false},{"h":8,"i":"a1492d12-1304-404e-8627-a3223c540654","w":6,"x":0,"y":18,"minH":1,"minW":3,"moved":false,"static":false},{"h":8,"i":"fa295dbb-25d7-4878-bb8c-68ea97aec5d4","w":12,"x":0,"y":26,"minH":1,"minW":3,"moved":false,"static":false}]}}