{"uuid":"3cdb90e6-2bbe-45ee-452e-03e62d807f0b","categoryUuid":"d2f73d80-57d3-4036-70f0-ad43e12c1276","data":{"meta":{"name":"Analysing Bull Markets"},"configs":[{"meta":{"content":"# Analysis Framework for a Bitcoin Bull Market\n\n---\n\nThis dashboard (and report) describe the underlying market dynamics, which can be observed using on-chain data, which have historically occurred during the 'Euphoria Zone` of a Bitcoin bull.\n\nThese tools are presented in a relatively linear sequence, aimed at exploring the market structure leading into Bitcoin bull market peaks from a data driven perspective. It will progress in three stages:\n\n- 🟢 Broadly defining the run-up to market peaks.\n- 🟠 Exploring the mechanics of sell-side pressure.\n- 🔴 Metrics describing the momentum of the unwind.\n\n# The Euphoria Zone\n\nInvestor behavior (especially the HODLers) tends to shift into distribution as the market breaks the past cycle ATH. We will initially define this 'Euphoria Zone' as equivalent to 'Price Discovery', after breaking the prior cycle ATH.\n\n\u003e 📰 **Related Report** We explore how long-term holder behaviour changes upon breaking the prior cycle ATH [in this report](https://insights.glassnode.com/follow-the-smart-money/).\n\n\n"},"uuid":"95c68721-af30-43aa-9de4-74045a94241f","extra":{"backgroundColor":"#EFFCFA"},"configType":"content"},{"meta":{"refUuid":"178a2882-7af5-4b6b-5764-b4702e631acb"},"uuid":"b1ca7ea1-d7c1-4d74-8821-6fa6b52bca9e","configType":"workbench"},{"meta":{"refUuid":"93585638-24ad-4195-74a0-db012cabbad0"},"uuid":"1fe97f3f-7432-4cf2-92b6-d54991a190ad","extra":{"zoom":"All"},"configType":"workbench"},{"meta":{"content":"## MVRV Enters High Profit Zone\n\n---\n\nThe breach of the market ATH often aligns with investors now holding at a significant unrealized profit. This creates a stronger incentive for investors to spend and sell.\n\nThe incentive to sell is well described by [Unrealized Profit/Loss metrics](https://studio.glassnode.com/dashboards/btc-unrealized-profit-loss) such as the MVRV Ratio. Higher MVRV Ratios indicate larger unrealized profit multiples held by that cohort.\n\nIn this chart we overlay the 'Price Discovery' zone with periods when MVRV is trading at +0.5σ standard deviations above the mean. This means that the average market participant is holding a statistically meaningful unrealized profit.\n\nThe incentive to sell for investors in profit is now significant (but doesn't necessarily mean the mania is over).\n\n\u003e 🪟 **Related Dashboard:** [The Unrealized Profit/Loss suite](https://studio.glassnode.com/dashboards/btc-unrealized-profit-loss) is particularly useful for monitoring this incentive to sell amongst investors.\n\n\u003e 📰 **Related Report:** [The Mastering MVRV report](https://insights.glassnode.com/mastering-the-mvrv-ratio/) is an excellent primer on the various mechanics related to this foundational on-chain tool."},"uuid":"e038802f-e728-4ced-a1cc-29227228114e","extra":{"backgroundColor":"#EFFCFA"},"configType":"content"},{"meta":{"refUuid":"7065004e-777f-44ce-5be7-bc7d7605be1e"},"uuid":"eef6cb41-ed9b-4f70-9822-9a7038ca2a2e","configType":"workbench"},{"meta":{"refUuid":"c9fe09c5-85e7-4abe-6d09-26649e1a8b80"},"uuid":"6c6787f5-d586-47be-af48-dbe79ed51879","configType":"workbench"},{"meta":{"content":"## MVRV by On-chain Cohort\n\n---\n\nIn the discipline of On-chain analysis, a powerful technique is to break down the market or coin supply into various **cohorts**. Here we overlay three MVRV variants grouped by holding time.\n\n- 🟠 Average market (all ages)\n- 🔴 Short-Term Holders (age younger than 155-days)\n- 🔵 Long-Term Holders (age older than 155-days)\n\n\u003e 📰 **Related Report:** For full details on our Long/Short-Term cohort heuristic, please [see this report](https://insights.glassnode.com/quantifying-bitcoin-hodler-supply/).\n\nWhat we note is that during the `Price Discovery` zone, these MVRV Ratios are both elevated, and diverge greatly. This is a result of the long-term holders having a much lower cost basis, and thus experiencing a relatively outsized return. Short-Term Holders on the other hand have a cost basis that 'chases price', resulting in persistently lower returns.\n\nFrom this we can establish a set of 'widening ratios' to better quantify and visualise the degree to which each cohort is more/less profitable.\n\n- **Uptrending Widening Ratios** describe an acceleration of unrealized profits held by longer-term holders.\n\n- **Negative Reversals in Widening Ratios** describe a rapid decline in market wide profitability, and often occur around cycle peaks."},"uuid":"8768e6de-9ed8-44e4-a063-db58c445139a","extra":{"backgroundColor":"#EFFCFA"},"configType":"content"},{"meta":{"content":"# The HODLer Distribution Cycle\n\n---\n\nThe risk of downside tends to increase the longer and the higher a bull market goes. As new demand flows in, older hands take advantage of the 'exit liquidity' to spend and distribute their supply.\n\nThe following on-chain dynamics tend to play out as coins are sold by longer-term holders to newer and less experienced buyers:\n\n- Older age supply (age \u003e 6mths) are spent and sold and an increasing and sustained rate.\n- This increases active and liquid supply which must be absorbed.\n- 'Hot Supply' increases (age \u003c 1mths) as coins are transferred to newer buyers.\n\nWe can use several tools to track and monitor this behaviour:\n\n- The Long-Term Holder Spending Indicator will flag after LTH Supply declines for 6-out-of-7 days.\n\n- Revived Supply 1yr+ increases meaningfully, flagged here when it breaches the 2yr Mean + 1σ level.\n\n- Hot Supply increases across two axes; 1) spot volume which is relatively young (\u003c 1wk up to 3m) since it was spent and sold by long-term investors; and 2) open interest and leverage in futures markets as speculation ramps up."},"uuid":"391e2001-bf15-4de7-aab8-35d3034e179f","extra":{"backgroundColor":"#FFF5E0"},"configType":"content"},{"meta":{"content":"# Top Heavy Markets\n\n---\n\nThis creates one of the most important dynamics; **a top heavy market**, where a majority volume of supply has an elevated cost basis. This makes a large cross section of the market sensitive to downside price action.\n\n\u003e The chart to the right shows the price distribution of where coins last moved on-chain on the 1-Dec-2021, a classic example of a top-heavy market.\n\nOften, metrics describing both Unrealized and Realized Profit of the market, especially Long-term Holders, will reach statistically improbable levels. This indicates that both the incentive, and the actualised profit taking is at elevated levels.\n\n### Reversals Start From The Inside-Out\n\nWe can calculate the cost basis for various cohorts of coins last moved within the last 6 months. In top heavy markets, the spot price will fall below the cost basis of several cohorts in short order, plunging them into loss.\n\nThe set of charts below highlight periods where there is an elevated risk of being in a top heavy market."},"uuid":"ebbcf679-67bc-4be0-9343-64f7c4e4a3cd","extra":{"backgroundColor":"#FFF5E0"},"configType":"content"},{"meta":{"refUuid":"60a98e48-b7ae-426b-6691-3165b0be00ae"},"uuid":"ef7f6aee-0f59-4d56-940e-4d4d87e0756e","configType":"workbench"},{"meta":{"content":"# The Unwinding\n\n---\n\nRarely is a market peak obvious at the time. However, as prices trade below the highly concentrated cost basis of a 'top heavy' market, Unrealized and Realized Losses accelerate and become extremely sensitive metrics / indicators.\n\nThe first major sell-off ('the shot across the bow') suddenly plunges large swathes of supply into an unrealized loss over a short period of time. The spot price dives below the Realized price of recent buyers (Short-Term Holders).\n\nSeveral MVRV Ratios will experience a dramatic decline as Unrealized Profits become Unrealized losses. Realized loss metrics tend to also spike as investors panic and distribute coins. On a relative scale, Losses now outstrip Profits, giving the first indicator that the tides of both sentiment and positioning may have changed."},"uuid":"93478a91-936e-43fd-8c89-bc9d52446cc5","extra":{"backgroundColor":"#FCE3E9"},"configType":"content"},{"meta":{"content":"# Coins Change Hands\n\n---\n\nA distinguishing characteristic of bull market peaks is that longer-term investors tend to divest, and the supply is increasingly saturated by newer and often less experienced buyers. This is a common trait amongst all asset classes where sophisticated investors tend to buy low and sell high, whilst less sophisticated buy high and sell low.\n\n\u003e 📰 **Related Report** we explore how this dynamic is visible within on-chain data in [this report](https://insights.glassnode.com/buying-high-and-selling-low-the-long-term-holder-learning-curve/).\n\nThis can be observed using the balance of coin-ages, or lifespan. We often use binary systems of old vs young supply to describe this phenomena:\n\n- Long vs Short-Term Holders\n- HODLers vs Speculators\n- Old (6m to 3y) vs Young (\u003c6m) vs Hot (\u003c 1m)\n\nThe net result of this supply re-distribution is that both the active liquid supply has increased, the market has fewer high conviction buyers/holders remaining, and a majority of holders are now inexperienced top buyers with an elevated cost basis."},"uuid":"cd7398b4-2ed2-4d02-ae01-6bb41d8abd7d","extra":{"backgroundColor":"#FFF5E0"},"configType":"content"},{"meta":{"date":1690416000000,"asset":"BTC","since":1279411200000,"until":1690416000000,"currency":"native","metricCode":"supply.RcapHodlWaves","resolution":"24h"},"uuid":"5823a989-fd85-40d2-b5a7-cb265cebcaca","extra":{"price":true,"scale":"lin","lineColor":"#f7931a","chartStyle":"line"},"configType":"metric"},{"meta":{"date":1690416000000,"asset":"BTC","since":1282003200000,"until":1690416000000,"currency":"native","metricCode":"indicators.RhodlRatio","resolution":"24h"},"uuid":"c8164ce1-5378-4834-a3e2-e639aed8dc2e","extra":{"zoom":"All","price":true,"scale":"log","lineColor":"#f7931a","chartStyle":"line"},"configType":"metric"},{"meta":{"refUuid":"035dedd6-9460-49ee-4c92-7a6689cdbbeb"},"uuid":"20ed0ea2-a291-40c3-a957-94f014128545","extra":{"zoom":"5y"},"configType":"workbench"},{"meta":{"date":1638313200000,"asset":"BTC","since":1230940800000,"until":1690416000000,"currency":"native","metricCode":"indicators.UrpdEntityAdjusted","resolution":"24h"},"uuid":"6fb030b1-cb74-43bc-b166-da726768f875","extra":{"scale":"lin","lineColor":"#f7931a","chartStyle":"line"},"configType":"metric"},{"meta":{"content":"# Signals of HODLer Exits\n\n---\n\nThe HODLer cohort tend to be relatively inactive throughout the majority the Bitcoin cycle. However, their propensity to spend and distribute coins increases markedly in late stage bull markets.\n\nThere are several on-chain metrics and tools we can monitor to track this behaviour:\n\n- HODLers spend larger volumes of their held supply as the market rises.\n- The market locks in increasingly large profits leading to an uptick across realized profit metrics.\n- Lifespan metrics increase as older coins are spent and destroy accumulated coindays.\n- The aggregate cost basis (Realized Price) of the market climbs as coins are revalued from cheaper to more expensive prices.\n\n\n\u003e The above tends to be balanced by an equal an opposite inflow of new demand, often with the excitement, mania, and media hype of a full bull market. However this new demand has a half-life, and at some stage the distribution pressure will overwhelm it."},"uuid":"b896a6d3-5aee-40c0-a072-03badce3d0fc","extra":{"backgroundColor":"#FFF5E0"},"configType":"content"},{"meta":{"refUuid":"566fbb5b-eeae-425f-6a2c-8649ba6fd125"},"uuid":"ab9d7e8c-05a2-446c-94d6-9539c4dabc1b","configType":"workbench"},{"meta":{"refUuid":"746d550b-eb71-49a7-4478-4ea0adb0359e"},"uuid":"fbf1756c-7313-4708-bf96-987518d4c1fc","configType":"workbench"},{"meta":{"refUuid":"f555984c-9166-49fe-63a4-0a9cd14025f6"},"uuid":"ffa6fc49-f471-46f1-ba8b-a5d930b63f2d","configType":"workbench"},{"meta":{"refUuid":"58787f1f-5162-4a96-67d4-102b615359b0"},"uuid":"e4318029-7c87-4490-9f7c-2728b36cf9d2","extra":{"zoom":"5y"},"configType":"workbench"},{"meta":{"refUuid":"6e7beec1-b2b3-4e4d-5989-e208c388fe54"},"uuid":"1ac738f4-a47d-4ddf-a3fa-d360ba8a0b76","configType":"workbench"},{"meta":{"refUuid":"ca1fab62-e6a1-441d-46ef-40841dc0145f"},"uuid":"033b1452-9986-4b48-8dd2-52b9cf38b18e","configType":"workbench"},{"meta":{"refUuid":"b1b0a4ec-14a6-4bc2-5eab-e16daf1106af"},"uuid":"2345e0bf-80bf-47a5-826f-7a482d5bfb49","extra":{"zoom":"All"},"configType":"workbench"},{"meta":{"content":"# Losses Accelerate\n\n---\n\nRealized Losses tend to increase dramatically, especially relative to the bull market uptrend whereas they tend to be sparse. The prevailing backdrop of realized profit dominance throughout a bull also starts to fade.\n\nAs a result, near term Realized Losses accelerate relative to the longer-term baseline. A simple framework to assess this is using a concept we refer to as 'momentum', where we take a ratio of a metric and a long-term baseline (often its 1yr moving average). \n\nThis metric displays the momentum of the Realized Profit/Loss ratio of Short-Term Holders. It is a very sensitive indicator which picks up both when an inflection point occurs in the Profit-to-Loss balance, and also when those components accelerate relative to the yearly baseline.\n\n\u003e **Related Dashboards:** We have dashboards to explore the Realized Profit/Loss dynamics for the [entire market (Entity-Adjusted)](https://studio.glassnode.com/dashboards/btc-realized-profit-loss-ea), for [Short-Term Holders](https://studio.glassnode.com/dashboards/btc-realized-pnl-sth), and the [Long-Term Holders](https://studio.glassnode.com/dashboards/btc-realized-pnl-lth)."},"uuid":"cbb66e41-a550-4020-8e3f-e12ff1408f44","extra":{"backgroundColor":"#FCE3E9"},"configType":"content"},{"meta":{"refUuid":"6455b7e2-ff3b-4f63-6f49-f015df2bd276"},"uuid":"48da5cec-6269-4930-a6b9-e08fed3b9007","configType":"workbench"},{"meta":{"refUuid":"ccf4f29f-af78-46d2-4a86-af32ddc5908c"},"uuid":"246e5af5-f7e9-4655-9de9-eea163fad153","extra":{"zoom":"5y"},"configType":"workbench"},{"meta":{"refUuid":"ca4b13c0-8814-4083-4a1a-37fecbcc7693"},"uuid":"d34eeb89-fb71-4e36-ac9b-87845aef7e10","configType":"workbench"},{"meta":{"refUuid":"9e5ccf30-d388-45a1-4ba0-0c8ce6f84973"},"uuid":"6f7813bf-18f2-43c0-b2fb-512fb790f997","configType":"workbench"},{"meta":{"content":"# Bearish Divergences\n\n---\n\nAs the dust settles after the first major sell-off, significant uncertainty tends to linger as to whether the bull is over. Smart money investors tend to use whatever energy is left in the market to take exit liquidity. This tends to restrict any additional price appreciation, leading to diminishing returns, and a lower high. These dynamics often create several 'bearish divergences' across on-chain metrics such as:\n\n- Higher highs in price, but lower highs in the MVRV (price is higher, but top heavy markets hold increasingly smaller unrealized profits).\n\n- On-chain activity metrics achieve weaker peaks as users leave the network (a decay in network activity and attention).\n\n- Spent coin volumes and realized profits decline, but the market may struggle to set convincing highs (less distribution is needed to slow the market).\n\n\u003e Often the above will be in stark contrast to the prevailing media narratives and investor excitement, which tend to be 'bulletproof' at this stage."},"uuid":"0370dd83-cf9a-4451-bc82-7b27ea251bdf","extra":{"backgroundColor":"#FCE3E9"},"configType":"content"},{"meta":{"content":"# The Nail in the Coffin\n\n---\n\nThe final tell-tale for a bear market is an major collapse in on-chain activity metrics. Fair weather investors are rapidly flushed from the market, resulting in dramatically lower network activity. These tools are slower and noisier day-to-day, but carry higher signal across longer-timeframes.\n\nDramatic declines in network activity can be seen after the Dec-2017 and Apr-2021 all-time-highs, being a strong indicator that the tides have turned.\n\nIn these charts, we use a simple 30Day / 365Day moving average cross-over to identify when network activity has declined meaningfully. We also employ our entity adjusted variants for the cleanest economic read on activity, filtering out non economical spends. "},"uuid":"80f009d8-5fe8-4a36-82c2-2f6eb486ccd9","extra":{"backgroundColor":"#FCE3E9"},"configType":"content"},{"meta":{"refUuid":"0e273549-f32d-4d1f-4ba3-5009aff6c608"},"uuid":"a983283c-58a4-4da4-a630-7fbbd232d513","extra":{"zoom":"5y"},"configType":"workbench"},{"meta":{"refUuid":"26458bd9-55ee-4fbd-5591-6c74206d43d6"},"uuid":"ace7c9cd-1f24-4db8-b192-6133e3fda4f0","extra":{"zoom":"5y"},"configType":"workbench"},{"meta":{"refUuid":"2b610246-d4a6-4557-5eba-58278da7696d"},"uuid":"5ac7fc6a-0b31-4390-a618-72417254e6ca","configType":"workbench"},{"meta":{"refUuid":"921a4dc6-6a7a-4c5f-74d4-0283e9dac027"},"uuid":"6e3e5b96-3bb3-4a5b-86dc-46359ac871a1","configType":"workbench"},{"meta":{"refUuid":"84d1f4f3-2bae-4f53-647f-3cbf17fd4af8"},"uuid":"8cfaf98e-6ca1-4aa7-a18e-28881ab99e00","extra":{"zoom":"5y"},"configType":"workbench"},{"meta":{"refUuid":"3ea2d6ab-9078-480f-6cf1-d1511d5bd7b4"},"uuid":"00fe8ff8-fa16-4c21-bcda-02359456a3c8","extra":{"zoom":"5y"},"configType":"workbench"},{"meta":{"refUuid":"f20684f1-270e-452c-7b21-aae6c6ebd7b0"},"uuid":"b4cc9f27-dd54-40d1-86e8-3e608b8e7f3c","configType":"workbench"},{"meta":{"refUuid":"6a311266-05d4-4206-5956-242c2dd02316"},"uuid":"2fd1d45a-1ebd-42be-864c-23fb4c8bfe31","configType":"workbench"},{"meta":{"refUuid":"ce76b6ea-d39b-44f1-7ae4-afbe79f86b4d"},"uuid":"370cf07c-4218-4384-a17a-7c04277bf3f7","configType":"workbench"},{"meta":{"refUuid":"43843b02-096f-41f4-593b-feaef20a8564"},"uuid":"aac09f0e-b948-4505-a9d8-6bc9eef293a0","configType":"workbench"},{"meta":{"refUuid":"efcce097-f784-40b5-5170-53b2aab09674"},"uuid":"637bba63-2673-4c20-84b0-3a125a10517f","configType":"workbench"},{"meta":{"refUuid":"d46b4bc8-3385-439b-7e89-4eefa6c65028"},"uuid":"1ac85fd7-98d6-4779-8631-a5bfecda2a12","extra":{"zoom":"All"},"configType":"workbench"},{"meta":{"refUuid":"ef7736f4-1d5a-4dc8-4ff9-0f3757e3be24"},"uuid":"4ad6809f-86e0-4a26-ac10-3f0d1579c0d0","extra":{"zoom":"All"},"configType":"workbench"},{"meta":{"refUuid":"2ce013c6-d918-4823-4bb6-45d1caadedb0"},"uuid":"06edff2a-9c51-4422-9ea1-dcaac8d0ce5b","extra":{"zoom":"5y"},"configType":"workbench"},{"meta":{"refUuid":"2bc7ff06-5766-44c7-4b30-f7503e379779"},"uuid":"019bed75-1943-4758-95b3-08e99273bee3","extra":{"zoom":"5y"},"configType":"workbench"},{"meta":{"refUuid":"6870c4c9-b605-485f-6321-d141ca263e44"},"uuid":"417577a7-bdaf-474e-9348-ca0c18dc40c1","configType":"workbench"},{"meta":{"content":"### Disclaimer\n---\n\n*This dashboard and associated content does not provide any investment advice. All data is provided for information purposes only. No investment decision shall be based on the information provided here and you are solely responsible for your own investment decisions. For for details, please refer to our [Terms and 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