{"uuid":"677ed32d-8897-4c9b-6077-d18a08c8aa27","categoryUuid":"169d7f2a-19b7-4672-7e38-c092a658c9c7","data":{"meta":{"name":"Identifying Altcoin Season"},"configs":[{"meta":{"content":"# Modelling Altseason\n\n---\n\nHere, we construct a novel tool to assess periods where ‘alt-season’ is occurring, specifically looking for increasing liquidity amongst the major assets (BTC, ETH and Stablecoins), alongside a discrete expansion in the Altcoin Capitalization.\n\n---\n\n\u003e ### Condition 1\n\n---\n\n\nHistorically, Bitcoin tends to lead the digital asset market, with market confidence then flowing towards Ethereum, and then further out on the risk curve from there.\n\nA powerful tool to visualise this capital rotation is using the 30-day change in the Realized Cap for 🟠 BTC and 🔵 ETH, and the total supply of 🟢 Stablecoins (as a proxy for USD quote capital, often deployed for speculation).\n\n- 🟢 **Risk-on** is defined when all three of these major assets are exhibiting net capital inflows.\n\n- 🔴 **Risk-off** is defined if any of the three major assets starts to exhibit net capital outflows.\n\n---\n\n\u003e ### Condition 2\n\n---\n\nThe second condition we isolates for positive momentum discretely within the Total Altcoin Cap (total crypto cap excluding BTC, ETH and Stablecoins).\n\nHere we look for periods where the aggregate valuation of the 7D SMA of the Altcoin sector is greater than its 30D SMA, suggesting both an expansion in valuation and increased liquidity flowing towards Altcoins.\n\n"},"uuid":"bf66f333-5ed1-42d7-9142-4334586ec883","extra":{"backgroundColor":"#ffffff"},"configType":"content"},{"meta":{"refUuid":"aeb7996a-8628-44a2-60b2-5abdb7528314"},"uuid":"47f8a6d7-517f-4d8b-a786-54b699f2c655","extra":{"zoom":"10y"},"configType":"workbench"},{"meta":{"refUuid":"9727647c-bf8a-4ea2-4a71-a819e55def96"},"uuid":"fc9f86d9-1550-4a37-9550-04cdfad64664","configType":"workbench"},{"meta":{"refUuid":"3c46f2ad-78b6-4032-65e6-4528db7c6640"},"uuid":"564ccae4-7438-4edf-b781-7a66d6d5cbb1","configType":"workbench"},{"meta":{"content":"### Momentum Signal\n\n---\n\nThe Momentum Signal is based on a proprietary statistical method which identifies whether the underlying distribution of an asset’s returns has departed from its usual structure. It also checks the magnitude and direction of this decoupling.\n\nNote that the signal should not be read in a linear manner: A Momentum Signal reading of 80 or -80 on an asset’s price structure is significantly more than twice as likely to continue in an exponential move than a reading of 40 or -40.\n\nThe Momentum Signal on an ecosystem, works analogous to the Momentum Signal for an individual asset. A high reading in an ecosystem’s Momentum Signal will always coincide with high readings of at least a share of its component assets.\n\n---\n\n\u003e ### Condition\n\n---\n\n\u003e Signal activates a long position when the Momentum Signal is greater than 0.01 suggesting an acceleration in returns across the assets ecosystem."},"uuid":"ced08dc7-755a-4db5-9e3a-de0a1129d1e9","extra":{"backgroundColor":"#ffffff"},"configType":"content"},{"meta":{"refUuid":"63d96eec-3352-41f0-61eb-06d6af9db343"},"uuid":"645168d6-2c59-4a7e-8527-286feb5b6903","configType":"workbench"},{"meta":{"refUuid":"4dc75440-b142-4ccb-6ffe-40d89b2af6f8"},"uuid":"7cb209e8-3d80-4d29-9797-c92b1ffee16a","configType":"workbench"},{"meta":{"content":"## Swissblock Momentum Signal"},"uuid":"b9d52a2e-3016-433c-94da-d0148599b316","extra":{"backgroundColor":"#ffffff"},"configType":"content"}],"layouts":[{"h":8,"i":"bf66f333-5ed1-42d7-9142-4334586ec883","w":5,"x":0,"y":0,"minH":1,"minW":3,"moved":false,"static":false},{"h":8,"i":"47f8a6d7-517f-4d8b-a786-54b699f2c655","w":7,"x":5,"y":0,"minH":1,"minW":3,"moved":false,"static":false},{"h":6,"i":"fc9f86d9-1550-4a37-9550-04cdfad64664","w":12,"x":0,"y":14,"minH":1,"minW":3,"moved":false,"static":false},{"h":6,"i":"564ccae4-7438-4edf-b781-7a66d6d5cbb1","w":12,"x":0,"y":8,"minH":1,"minW":3,"moved":false,"static":false},{"h":8,"i":"ced08dc7-755a-4db5-9e3a-de0a1129d1e9","w":4,"x":0,"y":22,"minH":1,"minW":3,"moved":false,"static":false},{"h":6,"i":"645168d6-2c59-4a7e-8527-286feb5b6903","w":12,"x":0,"y":30,"minH":1,"minW":3,"moved":false,"static":false},{"h":8,"i":"7cb209e8-3d80-4d29-9797-c92b1ffee16a","w":8,"x":4,"y":22,"minH":1,"minW":3,"moved":false,"static":false},{"h":2,"i":"b9d52a2e-3016-433c-94da-d0148599b316","w":12,"x":0,"y":20,"minH":1,"minW":3,"moved":false,"static":false}]}}