{"uuid":"a2776427-5d39-4e4b-7715-bbe54f44d505","categoryUuid":"339097f7-c8a6-4c79-67a3-64c8ddd9639c","data":{"meta":{"name":"Identifying Cycle-Tops"},"configs":[{"meta":{"content":"### AVIV Ratio\n\n---\n\nThe True Market Mean Price, or the Active-Investor Price, is a representative cost basis model for all coins acquired on secondary markets. We argue that this on-chain cost basis is one of the most accurate models available for on-chain analysts seeking the aggregate average on-chain acquisition price by investors, and thus a likely reference point for mean reversion models.\n\nGiven the Active Supply represents the economically active supply region, we can thus deduce a new variant of MVRV, comparing the Active Market Cap to the Investor Cap. We propose this to be the True Market Deviation, or otherwise known as the Active-Value-to-Investor-Value (AVIV) Ratio. \n\n---\n\n### Condition\n\n---\n\n\u003e To attempt to locate Macro Market Topping Formations, we assess for periods of time 🟢 **where the AVIV Ratio is above 3σ** , suggesting that active investors are holding a substantial amount of unrealized profit.\n"},"uuid":"f6d21de9-dad4-424d-adab-ebc6d419d6bc","extra":{"backgroundColor":"#ffffff"},"configType":"content"},{"meta":{"content":"### Short-Term Holder Cost-Basis\n\n---\n\nA Short-Term Holder is defined as an entity whose average purchase date of all their UTXOs is less than 155d old. Due to to the time threshold to qualify as a Short-Term Holder, we can consider this subset of the market as \"new market demand\" that are statistically sensitive to price fluctuation in the market.\n\nBy utilizing price stamping, we are able to obtain the average acquisition price per coin for a Short-Term Holder, providing deep insight into their market positioning, and the unrealized pressure they experience.\n\n---\n\n### Condition\n\n---\n\n\n\u003e Here we assess for periods of time where the **Spot Price is above the STH Cost-Basis + 1Sigma**, suggesting that the cohort is holding significant unrealized profit and are likely to take profit."},"uuid":"ea0bd81f-ccbf-46ac-a4c5-89a182b36d61","extra":{"backgroundColor":"#ffffff"},"configType":"content"},{"meta":{"content":"### Short-Term Holder SOPR Ratio\n\n---\n\nThe Short-Term Holder SOPR Ratio evaluates the magnitude of profit or loss taking on any given day for coins aged less than 155d.\n\nTypically, during macro topping formations, the profitability of this investor group drastically increases as the market reaches peak euphoria.\n\n---\n\n### Condition\n\n---\n\n\u003e Signal activates if the STH-SOPR Ratio is above 1 standard deviation suggesting significantly elevated profit taking amongst the new demand cohort."},"uuid":"77dec027-dfb6-4a58-afc9-929f83039f10","extra":{"backgroundColor":"#ffffff"},"configType":"content"},{"meta":{"refUuid":"320c27bd-0de0-4269-5284-9acf796bd07b"},"uuid":"f2eebc10-4292-460b-84ac-d19118e8c8e1","extra":{"zoom":"All"},"configType":"workbench"},{"meta":{"content":"### Realized Profit\n\n---\n\nUpticks in Realized Profit suggests that coins are being spent from increasingly favourable cost-basis. As a coin from a lower cost-basis is transferred to a higher cost-basis following the transaction, the net difference between the two positions can be considered as an increase in network liquidity.\n\nTherefore, significant inreases suggests that market investors are locking in increasingly large profits, and that network liquidity is rapidly increasing, typical of late stage bull markets.\n\n---\n\n### Condition\n\n---\n\n\u003e The signal will activate when the Realized Profit [BTC] is larger than 3 standard deviations."},"uuid":"2ce82caf-446b-4740-b8c8-5aaff795ea16","extra":{"backgroundColor":"#ffffff"},"configType":"content"},{"meta":{"content":"### Hot Supply\n\n---\n\nThe Hot Supply model assesses the percentage of the network wealth held by recently purchase coins, and can be considered as \"new demand\".\n\nA distinguishing characteristic of bull market peaks is that longer-term investors tend to divest, and the supply is increasingly saturated by newer and often less experienced buyers. This is a common trait amongst all asset classes where sophisticated investors tend to buy low and sell high, whilst less sophisticated buy high and sell low.\n\nThus, when the wealth held by new investors is significantly large, there is an increased chance of \"top heavyness\" and a supply and demand imbalance.\n\n---\n\n### Condition\n\n---\n\n\u003e Signal activates when the Hot Supply is above 0.5 standard deviations, signifying an elevated presence of retail wealth."},"uuid":"886257aa-3af9-48bd-8f22-1bbd3f8fa3a3","extra":{"backgroundColor":"#ffffff"},"configType":"content"},{"meta":{"refUuid":"25073163-989b-4645-4d7b-6928e08a2e56"},"uuid":"8a6142d7-24f0-43b9-977d-57eb15800629","extra":{"zoom":"All"},"configType":"workbench"},{"meta":{"refUuid":"49ba9905-af4e-4a1d-7394-3b95a01d3ac9"},"uuid":"815e0d44-896d-4a93-a9d6-0d85c69f83ea","extra":{"zoom":"All"},"configType":"workbench"},{"meta":{"refUuid":"0e982217-867e-486f-4fa4-4e364311139f"},"uuid":"91a61ed0-a9a3-4cb3-ae58-a8ae583862ab","extra":{"zoom":"All"},"configType":"workbench"},{"meta":{"refUuid":"0789b14f-88ba-45e8-567a-857b56e3776f"},"uuid":"b739e91d-2b9d-436e-b695-fb115fb87e2a","configType":"workbench"},{"meta":{"content":"## Miner Revenues from Fees\n\n---\n\nIn addition to the block subsidy, miners are paid transaction fees by users of the Bitcoin network to include their transaction into a limited Block Space. \n\nDue to this constraint in transaction space, when network participants demand to transact is large, fees become the incentive factor for inclusion in a block. \n\nThus we can utilize the presence of large miner fees to be an indicator of both bustling network activity, and a significant elevation in overall Miner revenues, two typical characteristics of a euphoric Bull Market.\n\n---\n\n### Condition\n\n---\n\n\u003e The signal fires when Miner Revenues (2Yr Z-Score) is above 4 Standard Deviations, suggesting both high network activity and large miner profitability."},"uuid":"28b0b333-2134-422d-b2c8-d8c8dd201329","extra":{"backgroundColor":"#ffffff"},"configType":"content"},{"meta":{"refUuid":"d5378249-79b4-4683-562d-22e36c17cacd"},"uuid":"782c820f-4565-4c0a-aa80-6664650a1c2e","configType":"workbench"},{"meta":{"content":"### Long-Term Holder Binary Distribution\n\n---\n\nThe Long-Term Holder Binary Distribution indicator assesses when LTH spending is increasing at a sustained rate. \n\nAs new demand flows in, older hands take advantage of the 'exit liquidity' to spend and distribute their supply, reintroducting long-dormant supply back into liquid circulation.\n\nThe net result of this supply re-distribution is that both the active liquid supply has increased, the market has fewer high conviction buyers/holders remaining, and a majority of holders are now inexperienced top buyers with an elevated cost basis. \n\nThis introduces the risk of market \"top heavyness\" and a potential reversal in trend if incoming demand cannot offset the newly introduced supply.\n\n---\n\n### Condition\n\n---\n\n\u003e The Long-Term Holder Spending Indicator will flag after LTH Supply declines for 6-out-of-7 days."},"uuid":"238e7b21-c7a5-40f3-be54-550fb5737a44","extra":{"backgroundColor":"#ffffff"},"configType":"content"},{"meta":{"refUuid":"d6613c2d-f157-4745-5b4f-d2e7bbbb3b2a"},"uuid":"a99d854b-5102-42ae-94ab-07864ac17226","extra":{"zoom":"All"},"configType":"workbench"},{"meta":{"content":"### Value Days Destroyed Multiple\n\n---\n\nThe Value Days Destroyed Multiple compares near-term spending behavior to the yearly average, as a means of detecting overheated and undervalued markets.\n\nIt's effectiveness is due to the nature of how market tops are formed: via the increasing spending of older coins that eventually overpower demand, ending euphoric bull runs.\n\nConversely, as older coins remain dormant and accumulation begins, this metric will decline and bottom during capitulation events and periods of accumulation.\n\n---\n\n### Condition\n\n---\n\n\u003e When the Value Days Destroyed Multiple is above 2.9, the model suggests market activity is at its highest, and many coins are changing hands."},"uuid":"c526397b-58d1-468d-bbfb-bc942c94b5fd","extra":{"backgroundColor":"#ffffff"},"configType":"content"},{"meta":{"refUuid":"0963856a-cc5c-463d-56a2-95850a043352"},"uuid":"a487c6f5-693c-4065-b9f8-ea574bedd45d","configType":"workbench"},{"meta":{"content":"Unrealized 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