{"uuid":"dca2e1fd-c1f3-4e51-4178-24d59fcfe152","categoryUuid":"d2f73d80-57d3-4036-70f0-ad43e12c1276","data":{"meta":{"name":"Spotting Cycle Tops \u0026 Bottoms"},"configs":[{"meta":{"refUuid":"e380f09d-dab7-44ac-6fa4-b6a9db992b2c"},"uuid":"b7a100f9-e935-40e0-90de-bb167dcc8adb","extra":{"zoom":"5y"},"configType":"workbench"},{"meta":{"content":"## Spotting Bitcoin Market Extremes via Oscillators\n\n---\n\nThis confluence indicator is designed to aide with identification of Bitcoin market extremes. It tracks the degree to which four popular cyclical on-chain oscillators have diverged from their respective long-term means, both to the upside, or the downside. The position of each oscillator is compared to its all-time-average, with thresholds set for what classifies as a statistically significant deviation (typically ±0.8 to ±1.0 standard deviation).\n\nThe signal is designed to take a 7D-EMA of the binary result returned from four oscillators:\n\n1) 🟢 **MVRV Ratio** indicating Unrealized Profit/Loss held by the market is at an extreme level.\n\n2) 🟡 **aSOPR (30D-EMA)** indicating that the Realized Profit/Loss multiple is at extreme levels.\n\n3) 🔵 **Puell Multiple** indicating relative miner revenue (and thus profitability) has reached an extreme level.\n\n4) 🔴 **Reserve Risk Multiple** indicating that the degree of HODLing taking place is at an extreme level.\n\nEach indicator returns a binary 1, or -1, if an extreme level is reached, and the signal aggregates the result across the four inputs:\n\n- **Positive Values** signal large deviations to the upside, typical of overheated bull market conditions.\n\n- **Negative Values** signal large deviations to the downside, typical of deep bear market conditions.\n\n- **Larger Absolute Values** indicating a larger count of signals have reached the defined deviation threshold.\n\n\u003e **Hint:** When a larger number of indicator signals align at the same time (confluence), it suggests a greater probability that the Bitcoin market is currently at a cycle extreme."},"uuid":"4cac7fe8-dcd6-4906-99f4-c007b71f11d9","extra":{"backgroundColor":"#ffffff"},"configType":"content"},{"meta":{"refUuid":"e380f09d-dab7-44ac-6fa4-b6a9db992b2c"},"uuid":"ed8aafd2-b501-4b37-80c6-c84759d5c683","extra":{"zoom":"10y"},"configType":"workbench"},{"meta":{"content":"## MVRV Ratio: Unrealized Profit/Loss\n\n---\n\n### 🔔 Signal: MVRV Exceeds Extreme Level 🟩\n\nThis chart will signal 🟩 when the MVRV Ratio has deviated above (positive) or below (negative) the extreme deviation levels denoted below.\n\n---\n\nThe MVRV Ratio represents the average Unrealized Profit Multiple held by the market ([📰 Read our Report](https://insights.glassnode.com/mastering-the-mvrv-ratio/)). It is calculated by taking the ratio between the Spot Price, and the Realized Price (average cost basis). For this signal, we show `MVRV - 1`, to better reflect the unrealized profit/loss held by the market in %.\n\n- **MVRV-1 = 1.2** means the market is holding 120% Profit.\n- **MVRV-1 = 0.0** means the market is at Break-Even.\n- **MVRV-1 = -0.2** means the market is holding a-20% Loss."},"uuid":"bbb392aa-bffe-4ff1-bf0c-7e126f88dce6","extra":{"backgroundColor":"#ffffff"},"configType":"content"},{"meta":{"content":"## Puell Multiple: Tracking Miner Revenues\n---\n\n### 🔔 Signal: Puell Multiple Exceeds Extreme Level 🟦\n\nThis chart will signal 🟦 when the Puell Multiple indicator (7D-SMA) has deviated above (positive) or below (negative) the extreme deviation levels denoted below.\n\n---\n\nThe Puell Multiple indicator represents the relative **Miner Revenue Multiple** over the last year ([📰 Read more in Academy](https://academy.glassnode.com/indicators/coin-issuance/puell-multiple)). It is calculated by taking the ratio between Total Miner Revenue [USD], and the yearly average. For this signal, we show `PM - 1`, to better reflect relative change in Miner Revenue compared to the yearly baseline.\n\n- **PM-1 = 0.2** means miners are earning +20% vs 1yr baseline.\n- **PM-1 = 0.0** means miners are earning equal to 1yr baseline.\n- **PM-1 = -0.3** means miners are earning -30% vs 1yr baseline.\n"},"uuid":"990de19f-47bc-497f-b7c6-f6bed04e25b4","extra":{"backgroundColor":"#ffffff"},"configType":"content"},{"meta":{"content":"## aSOPR (30D-EMA): Realized Profit/Loss\n---\n\n### 🔔 Signal: aSOPR (30D-EMA) Exceeds Extreme Level 🟨\n\nThis chart will signal 🟨 when the aSOPR indicator has deviated above (positive) or below (negative) the extreme deviation levels denoted below.\n\n---\n\nThe aSOPR indicator represents the average **Realized Profit Multiple** on coins spent by the market ([📰 Read more in Academy](https://academy.glassnode.com/indicators/sopr/sopr-spent-output-profit-ratio)). It is calculated by taking the ratio between the Spent Price, and the Acquisition Price for all coins spent that day. For this signal, we show `aSOPR - 1`, to better reflect the unrealized profit/loss held by the market in %.\n\n- **aSOPR-1 = 0.2** means the market realized an avg 20% Profit.\n- **aSOPR-1 = 0.0** means the market spent at break-even.\n- **aSOPR-1 = -0.1** means the market realized an avg 10% Loss.\n"},"uuid":"96ae130f-c019-480a-b316-230e3dabbd52","extra":{"backgroundColor":"#ffffff"},"configType":"content"},{"meta":{"content":"## Reserve Risk Multiple: Degree of HODLing\n---\n\n### 🔔 Signal: Reserve Risk Multiple Exceeds Extreme Level 🟥\n\nThis chart will signal 🟥 when the Reserve Risk Multiple indicator has deviated above (positive) or below (negative) the extreme deviation levels denoted below.\n\n---\n\nThe Reserve Risk Multiple indicator represents the **Degree of HODLing** taking place relative to the last year ([📰 Read more in Academy](https://academy.glassnode.com/indicators/coin-days-destroyed/reserve-risk)). It is calculated by taking the ratio between Reserve Risk, and the yearly average. For this signal, we show `RRM - 1`, to better reflect relative change in HODLing taking place compared to the yearly baseline.\n\n- **RRM-1 = 1.4** means HODLing increased +140% vs 1yr avg.\n- **RRM-1 = 0.0** means HODLing is equal to the 1yr avg.\n- **RRM-1 = -0.5** means HODLing decreased -50% vs 1yr avg.\n"},"uuid":"22b4d1df-782b-4496-8b3f-7b1f0c16e282","extra":{"backgroundColor":"#ffffff"},"configType":"content"},{"meta":{"refUuid":"b39127d6-2422-4f11-5915-65541659baa1"},"uuid":"6f631584-4547-4c55-8537-6eda9a33ee6d","configType":"workbench"},{"meta":{"refUuid":"a63525fc-624a-4f22-63be-72c23d3cde2b"},"uuid":"5a55e11f-95c2-4689-8a46-cdc3ebee8ed3","configType":"workbench"},{"meta":{"refUuid":"d255c4a5-6a5f-44d1-5750-38a6c8b1519a"},"uuid":"d718bcc9-cc56-4715-8ec3-baa026e89f97","configType":"workbench"},{"meta":{"refUuid":"d441b830-e7ae-4412-45df-1bcbf298a17d"},"uuid":"babb5598-1438-47d4-a405-abf2b7598c52","configType":"workbench"},{"meta":{"content":"### Disclaimer\n---\n\n*This dashboard and associated content does not provide any investment advice. All data is provided for information purposes only. No investment decision shall be based on the information provided here and you are solely responsible for your own investment decisions. For for details, please refer to our [Terms and Conditions](https://studio.glassnode.com/terms-and-conditions).*"},"uuid":"d4985146-61a4-4ef1-bd39-a6aa091c80ca","extra":{"backgroundColor":"#ffffff"},"configType":"content"},{"meta":{"refUuid":"5dece815-9d91-4561-4fc3-efed5ec92018"},"uuid":"41b78676-894f-4683-9543-afca9f7a397f","configType":"workbench"},{"meta":{"content":"## Market Extreme Oscillators\n---\n\nThis chart displays the four oscillators that are considered for this signal construction. The indicators have been selected to consider different components of investor behaviour within the Bitcoin on-chain economy:\n\n\n1) 🟢 **MVRV Ratio** reflecting Unrealized Profit/Loss.\n\n2) 🟡 **aSOPR** reflecting Realized Profit/Loss (shown x10).\n\n3) 🔵 **Puell Multiple** reflecting Miner Revenues.\n\n4) 🔴 **Reserve Risk Multiple** reflecting the degree of HODLing taking place.\n\nThe objective of this model is to identify statistically significant confluence at market cycle extremes. Some example interpretations if all four metrics are at an extreme:\n\n**Upside Confluence at Cycle Tops**\n- MVRV: the market hold significant unrealized profits.\n- aSOPR: spent coins are realizing large profits.\n- Puell Multiple: Miner revenue is much higher than the 1yr avg.\n- Reserve Risk: HODLing is at a low level relative to 1yr avg.\n\n**Downside Confluence at Cycle Lows**\n- MVRV: the market hold significant unrealized losses.\n- aSOPR: spent coins are realizing large losses.\n- Puell Multiple: Miner revenue is much lower than the 1yr avg.\n- Reserve Risk: HODLing is at a high level relative to 1yr avg."},"uuid":"007d8fe3-483b-4e33-820a-bd7710f7578d","extra":{"backgroundColor":"#ffffff"},"configType":"content"},{"meta":{"content":"### Note on Extreme Deviation Bands\n\n---\n\nThe following set of charts show bands representing the 4-year 🔵, and ± 1 standard deviation levels, representing extreme market conditions.\n\n- 🔴 Extreme Upside Deviation = μ + 1σ\n- 🔵 4-Year-Mean = μ\n- 🟢 Extreme Downside Deviation = μ - 1σ\n\nNote: For the Puell Multiple, and Reserve Risk Multiple indicators, a downside deviation of μ - 0.8σ is used."},"uuid":"2513a5d5-503f-4e1c-add6-735a50c5ddae","extra":{"backgroundColor":"#FFF5E0"},"configType":"content"},{"meta":{"url":"https://youtu.be/E31geQlXjSU","title":"Spotting Market Extremes Introduction Video (6 March 2023)"},"uuid":"4cc704bd-8460-4c53-b747-82859ddbf966","configType":"video"}],"layouts":[{"h":8,"i":"b7a100f9-e935-40e0-90de-bb167dcc8adb","w":8,"x":4,"y":0,"minH":1,"minW":3,"moved":false,"static":false},{"h":8,"i":"4cac7fe8-dcd6-4906-99f4-c007b71f11d9","w":4,"x":0,"y":0,"minH":1,"minW":3,"moved":false,"static":false},{"h":8,"i":"ed8aafd2-b501-4b37-80c6-c84759d5c683","w":12,"x":0,"y":8,"minH":1,"minW":3,"moved":false,"static":false},{"h":8,"i":"bbb392aa-bffe-4ff1-bf0c-7e126f88dce6","w":4,"x":0,"y":28,"minH":1,"minW":3,"moved":false,"static":false},{"h":8,"i":"990de19f-47bc-497f-b7c6-f6bed04e25b4","w":4,"x":0,"y":44,"minH":1,"minW":3,"moved":false,"static":false},{"h":8,"i":"96ae130f-c019-480a-b316-230e3dabbd52","w":4,"x":0,"y":36,"minH":1,"minW":3,"moved":false,"static":false},{"h":8,"i":"22b4d1df-782b-4496-8b3f-7b1f0c16e282","w":4,"x":0,"y":52,"minH":1,"minW":3,"moved":false,"static":false},{"h":8,"i":"6f631584-4547-4c55-8537-6eda9a33ee6d","w":8,"x":4,"y":28,"minH":1,"minW":3,"moved":false,"static":false},{"h":8,"i":"5a55e11f-95c2-4689-8a46-cdc3ebee8ed3","w":8,"x":4,"y":36,"minH":1,"minW":3,"moved":false,"static":false},{"h":8,"i":"d718bcc9-cc56-4715-8ec3-baa026e89f97","w":8,"x":4,"y":44,"minH":1,"minW":3,"moved":false,"static":false},{"h":8,"i":"babb5598-1438-47d4-a405-abf2b7598c52","w":8,"x":4,"y":52,"minH":1,"minW":3,"moved":false,"static":false},{"h":4,"i":"d4985146-61a4-4ef1-bd39-a6aa091c80ca","w":12,"x":0,"y":70,"minH":1,"minW":3,"moved":false,"static":false},{"h":8,"i":"41b78676-894f-4683-9543-afca9f7a397f","w":8,"x":4,"y":16,"minH":1,"minW":3,"moved":false,"static":false},{"h":8,"i":"007d8fe3-483b-4e33-820a-bd7710f7578d","w":4,"x":0,"y":16,"minH":1,"minW":3,"moved":false,"static":false},{"h":4,"i":"2513a5d5-503f-4e1c-add6-735a50c5ddae","w":12,"x":0,"y":24,"minH":1,"minW":3,"moved":false,"static":false},{"h":10,"i":"4cc704bd-8460-4c53-b747-82859ddbf966","w":10,"x":1,"y":60,"minH":1,"minW":3,"moved":false,"static":false}]}}