{"uuid":"fa37186f-0f4f-45f6-4010-2ca4cd2570c0","categoryUuid":"752fce11-1913-47e4-5707-91c0b669f02b","data":{"meta":{"name":"BTC: Monitoring HODLer Cycles"},"configs":[{"meta":{"content":"# Reserve Risk\n\nIn general, Reserve Risk can be considered in the following framework:\n\n- **Reserve Risk is Low ↘ when HODLer conviction is high**, unspent opportunity cost is increasing, and price is low and thus, there is an attractive risk/reward to invest.\n\n- **Low Reserve Risk 🟩 may signal relative undervaluation** and this process can be a lengthy and prolonged event. Accumulation of unspent opportunity cost takes time and coin maturity and thus Reserve Risk 'bottoms' often encapsulate late bear markets through to early bull markets.\n\n- **Reserve Risk is High ↗ when HODLer conviction is low**, unspent opportunity cost is decreasing,\n\n- **High Reserve Risk 🟥 may signal relative Overvaluation** and this process is often a short lived and rapid event. Higher prices create a compounding influence of increases incentive to sell, higher realised profits and make it attractive to spend older with long lifespans. Thus Reserve Risk 'rallies' often encapsulate mid to late bull markets and reverse rapidly after blow-off tops.\n\n\n[Link to Academy Article](https://academy.glassnode.com/indicators/coin-days-destroyed/reserve-risk)"},"uuid":"52cf20cb-4448-4c2b-a18e-4d2954b57ccd","extra":{"backgroundColor":"#ffffff"},"configType":"content"},{"meta":{"refUuid":"8fb9cb2f-c66f-4d01-5c79-bf6e358251b7"},"uuid":"3bf6880c-b91b-4a2a-b882-8d7a0e6a3b52","extra":{"zoom":"5y"},"configType":"workbench"},{"meta":{"content":"# Monitoring The HODLers 💎 🙏\n\n---\n\nThe cohort of Bitcoin investors who have the strongest thesis, highest conviction, and who believe in Bitcoin through all weather, are often referred to as the HODLers of last resort. We can observe this cohort by observing the age of coins being held and spent across the network.\n\n# Supply Last Active 1yr+\n\nOne of the bedrock metrics used in on-chain analysis is the concept of Lifespan. This describes the age of coins held by investors (HODLing conviction), but also how old the coins were when they are spent.\n\nGenerally speaking, when the aggregate coin supply is getting older, it indicates there are more HODLers in the system, putting coins into cold storage. Conversely, when those long-term investors spend, it signals that their conviction levels may be changing in response to market conditions.\n\nThis chart shows Circulating Supply 🟠, Supply Last Active 1yr+ 🔴, and the 30-day change in Supply Last Active 1yr+ 🔵\n\n**When HODLers with 1yr+ Old Coins are Spending:**\n- Supply Older than 1yr+ 🔴 will decline ↘️ and, the Net Position Change Metric 🔵 will be negative ↘️\n\n**When HODLers are accumulating and holding their coins for 1yr+:**\n- Supply Older than 1yr+ 🔴 will increase ↗️ and, the Net Position Change metric 🔵 will be positive ↗️"},"uuid":"78a8d258-714d-4647-beed-5888e594584a","extra":{"backgroundColor":"#ffffff"},"configType":"content"},{"meta":{"asset":"BTC","currency":"native","metricCode":"indicators.RhodlRatio","resolution":"24h"},"uuid":"8d2e496e-993f-480e-b586-b78e998c437b","extra":{"price":true,"scale":"log","lineColor":"#f7931a","chartStyle":"line"},"configType":"metric"},{"meta":{"content":"# Entity-Adjusted Dormancy Flow\n\nEntity-adjusted Dormancy Flow is the ratio of the current market capitalization, and the annualized dormancy value (measured in USD).\n\nWhere **Reserve Risk** captures the accumulation of coindays (HODLing behaviour), **Dormancy Flow** weighs the Market Cap against coinday destruction (HODLers spending).\n\n### Interpretation Guide\n\n- **Low Values 🟩 of Dormancy Flow ↘** signals that the Bitcoin Market cap is now very low relative to the value of coinday destruction. The asset is **trading below implied fair value** given the value of coin that HODLers are liquidating.\n\n- **High Values of Dormancy Flow ↗** signals that the Bitcoin Market cap is high relative to the value of coinday destruction. The asset is **trading above the implied fair value** given the volume of coin that HODLers are liquidating."},"uuid":"0b5bb69f-5c2d-4e5e-bb0f-b50de5d4d049","extra":{"backgroundColor":"#ffffff"},"configType":"content"},{"meta":{"asset":"BTC","currency":"native","metricCode":"indicators.DormancyFlow","resolution":"24h"},"uuid":"c5bb3235-8cbd-4cd4-bbe5-22dcd2191c96","extra":{"price":true,"scale":"log","lineColor":"#f7931a","chartStyle":"line"},"configType":"metric"},{"meta":{"content":"# Realized HODL Ratio (RHODL)\n\nThe Realized HODL Ratio is a market indicator that uses a ratio of two age bands in the Realized Cap HODL Waves. This captures the wealth distribution between older experienced investors (1y-2y old coins) and newer less experienced investors (1-week old coins).\n\n### Interpretation Guide\n\n- **Low RHODL** 🟩 indicates that there is a dominance in wealth held by 1y-2y old coins. These longer-term investors are generally more experienced, and more likely to be considered the 'smart money'. This typically shows a wealth transfer is underway, with longer-term investors accumulating slowly, and shorter-term investors leaving the market.\n\n- **High RHODL** 🟥 indicates that there is a dominance in wealth held by 1-week old coins. These short-term, newer investors are generally less experienced, and often swell in numbers in late-stage bull markets. This typically shows a wealth transfer has occurred with longer-term investors distributing, and shorter-term investors accumulating."},"uuid":"dbf4d7c0-8f22-4c4a-8d39-f377b14eeb7e","extra":{"backgroundColor":"#ffffff"},"configType":"content"},{"meta":{"asset":"BTC","currency":"native","metricCode":"indicators.Cdd90AgeAdjusted","resolution":"24h"},"uuid":"5e4f6da4-e572-4df0-b892-fa247ee4a56d","extra":{"price":true,"scale":"lin","lineColor":"#f7931a","chartStyle":"line"},"configType":"metric"},{"meta":{"content":"# Value Days Destroyed Multiple\n\nThe Value Days Destroyed Multiple compares near-term spending behavior to the yearly average, as a means of detecting overheated and undervalued markets.\n\nIt's effectiveness is due to the nature of how market tops are formed: via the increasing spending of older HODLer coins that eventually overpower demand, ending euphoric bull runs.\n\nConversely, as older coins remain dormant and accumulation begins, this metric will decline and bottom during capitulation events and periods of accumulation.\n\n### Interpretation Guide\n\n- **Extreme values above 2.9 🔴** historically print around cycle peaks, when market activity is at its highest and many coins are changing hands.\n\n- **High values above 1.4 🟡** denote the market \"heating up\" with higher spending activity than the yearly average. This often occurs as prices approach previous cycle highs.\n\n- **Low values below 0.75 🟢** occur in bear markets when accumulation behaviour dominates and coins are maturing."},"uuid":"c5f9e626-69bf-4551-9d6d-70188eb3f75c","extra":{"backgroundColor":"#ffffff"},"configType":"content"},{"meta":{"content":"# Coindays Destroyed 90 (CDD-90)\n\nCoin Days Destroyed 90 takes the rolling sum of coin days destroyed (CDD) over the previous 90-day period as a macro indicator for annual economic activity.\n\nCDD-90 will increase proportional to the volume and lifespan of coins spent on-chain over the past year. Changes in CDD-90 values and trend can signal changing sentiment of HODLers as they spend, or accumulate.\n\n### Interpretation Guide\n\n- **High values 🔴 and up-trends ↗️ (Bullish markets)** suggest that an increasing volume of coin days were destroyed over the past 90-days. This may indicate that HODLers, who own coins with long lifespans, are spending, which may lead to an increase in liquid coin supply.\n\n- **Low values 🔵 and down-trends ↘️ (Bearish markets)** suggest that an decreasing volume of coin days were destroyed over the past 90-days. This may indicate that HODLers are spending fewer coins, and interest in the asset is in decline.\n\n- **Sideways trends ➡️ (Accumulation)** suggest an equilibrium in the volume of coin days destroyed has been reached over the past 90-days. This may indicate that spending and distribution behaviour has slowed and accumulation is taking place by smart money investors which may lead to a decrease in liquid coin supply."},"uuid":"1af97e04-be1b-482d-93b5-842d7783ba57","extra":{"backgroundColor":"#ffffff"},"configType":"content"},{"meta":{"refUuid":"4653aaed-ed40-47ff-5855-4c9f1aa08ef9"},"uuid":"39593f90-2a5a-43c7-b9b4-d12e55f4c76d","configType":"workbench"},{"meta":{"refUuid":"023a2ca0-8bd4-46e5-535b-115828702a96"},"uuid":"ad0c7f51-003d-497a-9c7e-bcd7c1761682","configType":"workbench"}],"layouts":[{"h":8,"i":"52cf20cb-4448-4c2b-a18e-4d2954b57ccd","w":4,"x":0,"y":8,"minH":1,"minW":3,"moved":false,"static":false},{"h":8,"i":"3bf6880c-b91b-4a2a-b882-8d7a0e6a3b52","w":8,"x":4,"y":0,"minH":1,"minW":3,"moved":false,"static":false},{"h":8,"i":"78a8d258-714d-4647-beed-5888e594584a","w":4,"x":0,"y":0,"minH":1,"minW":3,"moved":false,"static":false},{"h":8,"i":"8d2e496e-993f-480e-b586-b78e998c437b","w":8,"x":4,"y":24,"minH":1,"minW":3,"moved":false,"static":false},{"h":8,"i":"0b5bb69f-5c2d-4e5e-bb0f-b50de5d4d049","w":4,"x":0,"y":16,"minH":1,"minW":3,"moved":false,"static":false},{"h":8,"i":"c5bb3235-8cbd-4cd4-bbe5-22dcd2191c96","w":8,"x":4,"y":16,"minH":1,"minW":3,"moved":false,"static":false},{"h":8,"i":"dbf4d7c0-8f22-4c4a-8d39-f377b14eeb7e","w":4,"x":0,"y":24,"minH":1,"minW":3,"moved":false,"static":false},{"h":8,"i":"5e4f6da4-e572-4df0-b892-fa247ee4a56d","w":8,"x":4,"y":32,"minH":1,"minW":3,"moved":false,"static":false},{"h":8,"i":"c5f9e626-69bf-4551-9d6d-70188eb3f75c","w":4,"x":0,"y":40,"minH":1,"minW":3,"moved":false,"static":false},{"h":8,"i":"1af97e04-be1b-482d-93b5-842d7783ba57","w":4,"x":0,"y":32,"minH":1,"minW":3,"moved":false,"static":false},{"h":8,"i":"39593f90-2a5a-43c7-b9b4-d12e55f4c76d","w":8,"x":4,"y":40,"minH":1,"minW":3,"moved":false,"static":false},{"h":8,"i":"ad0c7f51-003d-497a-9c7e-bcd7c1761682","w":8,"x":4,"y":8,"minH":1,"minW":3,"moved":false,"static":false}]}}